Navigating Tariffs and Economic Shifts: Turning Change and Uncertainty into Strategic Opportunity

Economic shifts caused by tariffs are not new to the U.S. economy, and history provides valuable lessons on how banks can successfully navigate these turbulent periods. Commercial and Business bankers are uniquely positioned to guide their clients through these periods of uncertainty, transforming potential disruptions into opportunities for growth. RelPro provides the insights and analytics essential for bankers to be trusted advisors during the current economic shifts.

Historical Context: Tariffs and Economic Impact

Tariffs have long been instruments of economic policy in the U.S., shaping industry performance and influencing market conditions. Historically, from the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of 1930, which intensified the Great Depression, to recent trade tensions impacting global supply chains, tariffs invariably reshape industries and company strategies. Banks that strategically position themselves and execute effectively to support and advise their clients during these periods of disruption have successfully turned the change and uncertainty into substantial business and relationship-building opportunities.

What's Different Today?

Unlike historical periods such as the Great Depression era, today's banks are significantly more equipped with technological advancements and robust analytical tools like RelPro, enabling rapid response and deeper insight into market dynamics and the impact of economic shifts on industry sectors and companies. However, modern global interconnectedness also means tariff impacts reverberate faster and more broadly across global supply chains and markets, creating the need for greater immediacy in responses by banks and their clients.

Undoing Tariffs: Lessons Learned

Historically, when tariffs have been lifted or significantly reduced, such as during trade liberalization periods like the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) or the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), economies often experienced a surge in trade activity and market confidence. This created opportunities for banks to offer expanded financial services, facilitating increased international trade financing and foreign exchange services. Conversely, industries that had previously relied on protective tariffs faced intensified competition, demanding strategic advisory and restructuring services from banks to adapt successfully.

Identifying Industries Most Vulnerable to Tariffs

RelPro enables commercial and business bankers to proactively identify industries most affected by tariff changes through strategic partnerships with industry analytics leaders IBISWorld and Vertical IQ. Using real-time industry reports and predictive economic data, bankers can anticipate market shifts, helping their clients adjust their strategies in advance of their competition and using RelPro to identify prospect and client companies in need of advice and services. Industries such as manufacturing, agriculture, and technology often face immediate impacts from tariffs—anticipating these shifts can enable timely and proactive engagement between bankers and business decision-makers.

Pinpointing Companies Actively Impacted

Commercial and Business bankers can leverage RelPro’s Advanced Search and Buyer Intent signals to target specific companies feeling the tariff impact. RelPro’s data provides visibility into companies actively engaged in international trade, foreign exchange, or financing to support restructuring due to tariff pressures. By identifying prospects through these buyer intent signals, bankers can prioritize companies needing immediate support and position themselves as invaluable strategic partners.

Further, identifying U.S. subsidiaries of foreign-owned multinational corporations becomes straightforward with RelPro, opening up discussions about cross-border exposure and financial solutions tailored specifically to their complex needs.

Detecting Early Indicators of Company Intent & Activity

Bankers should pay close attention to spikes in Buyer Intent activities linked directly to tariff changes, such as increases in research around air freight solutions, supply chain diversification, or seeking international partnerships. RelPro’s detailed analytics allow bankers to pinpoint these early indicators and initiate proactive, timely outreach, ensuring their clients receive solutions before competitors even recognize the opportunity. Companies in logistics or manufacturing experiencing tariff-induced demand surges represent prime candidates for specialized banking solutions, from supply chain financing to international payment solutions.

Leveraging Relationship Mapping for Accelerated Strategic Engagement

One of RelPro’s most strategic advantages is its Relationship Mapping capabilities. In conjunction with our partners at Altrata, relationship mapping analyzes existing institutional relationships to reveal personal connections to decision-makers at impacted companies. Particularly beneficial to larger banks, it allows for fast-tracking connections. Equally valuable are the ways that RelPro highlights opportunities to accelerate relationship-building with small and mid-market businesses through CPA relationship networks. Through targeted outreach based on identified connections, banks can deepen client relationships, accelerate prospecting, improve penetration rates, and position themselves effectively and efficiently during critical economic transitions.

Positioning Your Bank for Long-term Growth

As with previous widespread economic disruptions (remember COVID-19!), this period of tariff changes offers a valuable “moment-in-time” opportunity for banks to solidify and grow their role as a trusted advisor to business owners and senior decision-makers. Commercial and business bankers armed with actionable insights from RelPro can proactively transform the current market challenges into strategic opportunities. RelPro provides the tools and analytics necessary to not only survive economic uncertainties but to leverage them as moments of significant competitive advantage and long-term growth.

References

• Amiti, M., Redding, S. J., & Weinstein, D. (2019). The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 187–210.
• Bown, C. P. (2019). The US-China trade war and its implications for the global economy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(4), 107–130.
• Irwin, D. A. (2011). Peddling Protectionism: Smoot-Hawley and the Great Depression. Princeton University Press.